Autumn Budget 2025: Predictions - What might change, and what to do now

The Chancellor will deliver the Autumn Budget on Wednesday 26 November 2025. This is expected to be the government’s first major fiscal event focused on “an economy not working well enough for working people”. With borrowing pressures still high, you should be prepared for targeted tax rises and a few surprises.

Big-ticket predictions we’re watching

1) Tax rises to tackle the deficit

·       Stealth over headline hikes

Independent analysis points toward ‘stealth’ rather than headline increases with freezes to thresholds, targeted levies, and possible changes to wealth or property taxes.

Policy watchers expect more “base broadening” rather than rate hikes in Income Tax, NI or VAT.

·       Rental income & mobility taxes

Rumours include National Insurance on rental income and even an exit tax for those moving wealth offshore. No policy yet, but these ideas have been floated by think tanks and economists to raise revenue without headline rate changes.

What this could mean for you:

If you’re relying on property or investment income, you could face higher effective taxation. You should consider reviewing wrappers (ISAs, pensions) and spousal transfers to mitigate exposure.

2) Capital Gains Tax (CGT) & Inheritance Tax (IHT)

·       CGT tightening

The 2024–25 Budget already cut the annual CGT exemption to £3,000, and commentators expect further alignment between CGT and Income Tax rates.

·       IHT pressure points

Inheritance Tax is also in focus. Analysts predict the freeze on thresholds will continue, dragging more estates into scope.

There are also many rumours about ending the long-standing exemption of unused pension funds. On a person’s death these would become part of the taxable estate for IHT purposes.

What this could mean for you:

Estate planning will climb the agenda. You might benefit from revisiting gifting strategies, trusts and life cover to fund future IHT liabilities.

3) Property-tax shake-up (Stamp Duty & Council Tax)

·       Stamp Duty reform

Persistent speculation suggests a reform of Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) potentially replacing it with a proportional property tax, or re-banding council tax.

With property transactions still subdued, the Treasury may opt for changes to stimulate movement while generating steady revenue.

What this could mean for you:

High-value homeowners and landlords could see higher recurring costs, while first-time buyers or downsizers may benefit. If you’re looking at a completion date that straddles Budget day, speak to us for more information.

4) ISAs & Pensions – nudging money into markets

·       Investment emphasis

The government has consulted on reforms to encourage savers to invest more productively. A “cash cap” within the £20,000 ISA allowance was explored earlier in the year but paused following sector feedback.

A broader ISA simplification is expected, with incentives for investment ISAs and possible consolidation of product types.

·       Allowance reviews

For pensions, some analysts believe changes to tax-free cash or further allowance reviews could be on the horizon as part of deficit management.

What this could mean for you:

You may need to revisit portfolio liquidity with us to ensure you keep accessible emergency savings while maximising long-term growth potential.

5) One surprise to watch

Each Budget brings an unexpected twist. This year’s “rabbit out of the hat” may be a behavioural tax, for example, an online gambling levy or luxury-property charge.

While such moves have limited fiscal impact, they appeal politically and can shift sentiment in certain sectors.

Talking points to discuss with us before the budget

1. Maximise wrappers & allowances now: Use this window before potential changes.

2. Estate readiness: Check wills, nominations, and protection cover.

3. Property timing: Discuss SDLT or council tax reform risks before exchange.

4. Stay flexible: Schedule review calls post-Budget.

Sources

1. HM Treasury – Budget to address economy that’s “not working well enough for working people” (26 Nov 2025 date confirmed) — gov.uk

2. Parliament.uk – Budget and Parliament overview — parliament.uk

3. Fidelity – What can we expect in the Autumn Budget? — fidelity.co.uk

4. Fidelity – Autumn Budget: inheritance tax and other possible changes — fidelity.co.uk

5. LoveMoney – Autumn Budget 2025 preview: inheritance tax, pensions, capital gains hikes — lovemoney.com

6. Gov.uk – Inheritance Tax on pensions: summary of responses (April 2027 changes) — gov.uk

7. Armstrong Watson – Financial planning in a new era: UK tax changes to IHT, CGT & pensions — armstrongwatson.co.uk

8. Saffery – Autumn Budget 2025: what to expect — saffery.com

9. The Guardian – What new UK rules on pension inheritance may mean for you — theguardian.com

10. Office for Budget Responsibility – Inheritance Tax forecasts, 2025–26 — obr.uk

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The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount invested. 

HM Revenue and Customs practice and the law relating to taxation are complex and subject to individual circumstances and changes which cannot be foreseen. 

For specialist tax advice, please refer to an accountant or tax specialist.